Dwarkesh PatelVideo
Why Superhuman AI Might Only Need to Master R&D - Ryan Greenblatt
Greenblatt's argument matters for capital allocation because it reframes the AGI race as a narrower, more tractable target: automate AI research itself and let recursive improvement do the rest. If you're forecasting timelines or valuing labs, the R&D-automation thesis is a cleaner variable to model than vague notions of general superintelligence. Worth watching for anyone underwriting compute or lab bets on a multi-year horizon.